Three Refrigeration Trade Shows in One Month: Where the Growth Is Going
October is the busiest month of the year in the refrigeration business, and 2026 is no exception. The international refrigeration, air conditioning, ventilation, heating and water treatment trade fair opened in Rio de Janeiro on October 6, drawing roughly 100 brands and more than 10,000 industry professionals. On October 21, the ninth Henan Minquan Refrigeration Equipment Expo follows at the Mengdie Convention Center, with 30,000 square metres of exhibition space. One day later, the sixth RACC show opens at the new Hangzhou Convention and Exhibition Center, this year running as a three-way link-up with Germany's CHILLVENTA and Thailand's refrigeration fair.
Three shows inside a fortnight is not a coincidence. It reflects one shared reality: the domestic market is no longer carrying the industry, and growth has to come from somewhere else.
At home: replacement demand holds the floor
The 2026 cooling year, which ran from August 2025 to July 2026, has closed. Global household air conditioner shipments came in at 200 million units, down 9.4% year on year. Retail numbers from AVC are blunter still: domestic retail volume of 68.97 million units, down 14.4%, and retail value of RMB 207.8 billion, down 19.2%. New-build demand has faded, and the main driver has shifted from first-time purchase to replacement and upgrade. That transition will not be quick. What holds the base together is the trade-in subsidy programme, plus a genuine willingness among buyers to pay more for better airflow comfort, fresh-air filtration and quieter, more efficient operation.
Overseas: drill-free units in Europe, high-humidity duty in South America
Exports tell a very different story. China Customs data shows exports of air conditioners to the EU reached USD 3.76 billion in the first half of 2026, up 43.2% year on year, with drill-free, easy-install split and portable units growing fastest. Older European buildings often cannot take a wall penetration, installation labour is expensive and electricity prices are high, so Chinese brands developed purpose-built no-install and ultra-high-efficiency models, while moving early on low-GWP refrigerants to stay compliant with the EU F-Gas regulation. The short-term heatwave demand is being converted into longer-term brand position.
South America is picking up too. Figures from ABRAVA, the Brazilian association of refrigeration, air conditioning, ventilation and heating, put 2025 industry revenue at around BRL 50.15 billion, with 2026 projected at BRL 55.62 billion. Brazilian split-type air conditioner production rose from 3.816 million units in 2023 to 6.385 million in 2025, an increase of more than 60% in two years. Gree has been in the Brazilian market for more than two decades and now focuses on inverter and high-efficiency products, expanding into VRF, light commercial and large central plant, with anti-corrosion design added specifically for the humid coastal conditions of the northeast and southeast. The local supply chain is interlocking more tightly as well: RLX, a Brazilian refrigerant producer, derives roughly 60% of its business from Chinese companies and holds an estimated 20-25% share of the relevant domestic market.
Technology: low-GWP refrigerant is a gate, not a bonus
This year's RACC show in Hangzhou put CO2 transcritical systems at the centre of the programme, with organisers citing 22% lower energy consumption and 90% lower carbon emissions than conventional systems. Domestically developed CO2 transcritical units are claimed to cut energy use by more than 30% with near-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Magnetic-bearing variable-speed chillers and solid-state cooling also took booth space, aimed at temperature-sensitive applications such as pharmaceutical cold chain and precision instruments. The show even added a cross-border cold chain compliance zone, where more than 20 international certification bodies walked buyers through EU CE and US FDA requirements on site.
Refrigerant transition is no longer a talking point. In the ice maker ODM sector, R290 penetration has climbed from 35% in 2023 to over 60% in 2026. A contract manufacturer without in-house system design capability for refrigerant changeover and the compliance testing that goes with it simply will not win European or North American orders. Energy standards, food-contact material certification and voltage compatibility have moved out of the appendix of the selection sheet and into the first round of screening.
Niche segments are starting to carry volume
There is a more practical reason for the cluster of trade shows: specific application segments are finally producing real volume, and commercial kitchens are the clearest example. Industry surveys suggest more than 60% of chain restaurant operators now prioritise dedicated air conditioning in kitchen renovations, and ventilation and air purification systems have grown to 15-20% of kitchen retrofit budgets. The engineering logic here is nothing like residential air conditioning. A commercial kitchen presents heat, humidity and airborne grease at the same time, and a standard domestic unit will be destroyed within months. The mainstream answer today is water-cooled units with no outdoor condenser, which avoids both the installation barrier and the corrosion problem, paired with return-air designs using removable metal filters. Cooling capacity clusters between 2.5 and 5.0 kW, energy efficiency ratios generally exceed 3.0, and some premium models reach IPX5 protection against water and oil ingress.
Slush and frozen drink machines are moving in the same direction. Research from LP Information puts the global slush machine market at USD 450 million by 2032, growing at a compound annual rate of 4.8%, with the top ten manufacturers holding roughly 34.0% of the market in 2025. The leading names include Ali (GBG, Sencotel), Bunn, Taylor, Vollrath, Dongbei Group and Guangdong Meike Cold Chain. Southeast Asia is seeing notable commercial purchasing growth in snow ice and slush machines on the back of tropical climate and recovering tourism. On the ODM side there is a clear move from commercial down to household, with multi-mode, self-cleaning and UV-sterilising combination products finding favour with middle-class households. For export-oriented factories, this is a niche with modest volume but reasonable margin.
Pulling it together, the industry's agenda for the fourth quarter of 2026 comes down to three lines: hold the domestic floor with trade-in and replacement demand, take the European and South American window with no-install and high-efficiency products, and concentrate technical investment on low-GWP refrigerants and application-specific machines. Orders signed during trade show season will not all convert into revenue this year, but the direction is clear enough. The old logic of depending on the weather and on property construction no longer works.